Average used van prices fell 2.7% in March, with remarketing companies reporting mixed fortunes as the age and mileage of stock rise.

Online remarketing firm Autorola’s average price fell from £11,536 to £8,910 in Q1, the most dramatic change since it began its van prices survey in 2012.

Jon Mitchell, sales director at Autorola, says: “Prices have started to fall, not because demand has reduced, but generally the age and mileage of vehicles coming back onto our online portal have increased.

“We think fleets, and in particular rental companies, are now keeping to their extended post-recession replacement cycles, which is also having an impact. The condition of some of the older used stock is also weaker, which is affecting prices.”

The impact of a fall in residuals depends on the gap between leasing companies’ forecasts and their achieved values (or van fleets’ own forecasts if they buy outright or on finance lease).

Leasing companies have enjoyed strong profits on the back of the better-than-predicted van values of the past three years; this downturn could see them take a more pessimistic view of the future, resulting in a rise in leasing rates.

The National Association of Motor Auctions (NAMA) says average used van prices fell 2.7% in March, although more units (11,329, 23% higher than March 2014) were sold. With the exception of nearly-new LCVs, the total number of vans sold at auction increased within each age band.

However, Alex Wright, chairman of NAMA’s commercial vehicle group, struck a positive note.

“The wholesale market’s performance continues to deliver an upbeat message, with demand holding firm despite sizeable increases in overall sales volume and average age,” he says. “The 7.2% volume increase over February 2015 was expected following the new registrations entering the used LCV market. Even more significantly, we are pleased to see year-on-year growth has reached 23%.

“LCVs over six years old recorded the largest number of sales following a downward trend. We are hopeful that the outlook for the summer months looks promising.”

BCA bucked the trend with a 1% year-on-year increase in average values in March, a rise of £59, although performance against CAP declined by 2.5 points over the year.

The average van being remarketed is two months younger and travelled 1,600 fewer miles, but condition is a concern.

BCA head of commercial vehicles Duncan Ward says: “We continue to see rising volumes of poor condition or similar model vans, which is creating pressure on average values. We have been predicting a tipping point in used values for some time and both fleet/lease and dealer part-exchange vans averaged lower values in March 2015 than a year ago.”

Glass’s Guide notes that a number of late-plate, low-specced vans have been coming off short-term contract in the past few months and have been struggling.

Chief commercial vehicle editor George Alexander says: “This type of LCV, which will have been sold at a massive discount and without all the kit, fails to attract much interest. Similarly, and possibly counter-intuitively, late-year vans remarketed directly from a manufacturer source through the block receive mixed sentiment and under-achieve.”

However, he adds: “It seems likely that the underlying strength of the UK’s economy will carry us safely through the next 18 months.”

Experts at CAP Red Book predict that values may continue to fall but is unsure whether it is part of a long-term trend.

Commercial vehicle editor John Watts says: “It remains to be seen if we are witnessing a return to more traditional seasonal buying patterns or it’s indicative of a return to more sustainable pricing levels.”