Without a “dramatic turnaround” in consumer appetite for electric vehicles (EVs), fleets will be crucial to zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets being hit, according to Cox Automotive.

In 2023, fleets were responsible for almost two-thirds (64%) of all new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) registered and more than half of all new registrations. 

Cox Automotive's insight director, Philip Nothard, said: "With EVs set to make up a growing proportion of the overall new car parc, thanks to the ZEV mandate, a rapidly changing OEM product mix and other factors, buyers need to be found for these new EVs.

“Without a sudden and dramatic turnaround in consumer appetite, fleets will continue to shoulder that burden.

"Our forecasts predict a relatively flat 2024 for new registrations which further underlines the crucial role fleets have in shaping the demand for EVs and their eventual supply to the used market."

Lorna McAtear, deputy chair of the Association of Fleet Professionals (AFP) and head of fleet at National Grid, is responsible for managing one of the largest and most diverse fleets in the UK.

She said: "We know we're going to be the driving force this year and why do we know that? Because the manufacturers have come back to us offering discounts. Fleets will continue to be the backbone of this change.”

She explained that, with the Government pushing back the ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) from 2030 to 2035, there is a retail perception challenge.

As a result, she said: “It’s fleets that are going to drive this forward. It's fleets that feed a lot of those vehicles into the second-hand market. It's fleets that put drivers into those vehicles that would otherwise never have got into them.”

Regarding the potential impact of the agency sales model on fleets, she added: “I always have to go away and check what people mean when they talk about agency model, as it’s what I've always used.

“The bigger the fleet, the more likely you'll have to deal directly with the manufacturer. I don't think I'll see any difference."

However, McAtear, who was appearing alongside Nothard for Cox Automotive’s latest Insight Report podcast, believes smaller fleets, more used to dealing with dealerships, are going to struggle more with the change.

A pure agency model will mean a less personable arrangement, as they may, in many cases, have to negotiate with large OEMs instead.

She added that new entrants to the EV market will have a marked impact on uptake as their fresh perspective will see them go to great lengths to win customers compared to established OEMs.

Nothard said: “We believe 2024 will see a collective will for stability across the automotive industry. Industry players are facing many economic and political challenges, fleets included.”

Listen to the latest Insight Report podcast, Fleets Challenges and Opportunities in 2024, with Nothard and McAtear here. 

Cox Automotive's forecasts for 2024 and beyond are also published as a part of its Insight Report, which includes a deep dive into key issues currently facing dealers, OEMs and fleets.